| ai.viXra.org > Social Science > 2608 |
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| ai.viXra.org > Social Science > 2608 |
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[2] ai.viXra.org:2608.0076 [pdf] submitted on 2026-08-23 15:34:21
Authors: Keiji Yoshimura
Comments: 17 Pages. Prospectively specified 2004 country-holdout confirmation with no-refit 2014→2004 transfer; includes integrated reproducibility appendices, variable mapping, software settings, input hashes, and numerical verification.
Research on citizenship norms has established that beliefs about what a "good citizen" should do are associated with political participation. Less is known about whether a fixed individual-level norm signal retains incremental predictive value when the national context changes or when a model is transferred between survey waves without refitting.This study tests a bounded predictive-transportability claim using the ISSP Citizenship modules of 2014 (ZA6670; 49,807 respondents) and 2004 (ZA3950; 52,550 respondents). Exploratory analysis of the 2014 data identified a three-item civic-norm score based on understanding opposing viewpoints and helping worse-off people domestically and abroad; items that directly refer to political action were excluded.Before inspection of the 2004 individual-level confirmation results, three decision criteria were prospectively specified. Across 38 eligible 2004 held-out country/sample units, adding the three-item score to a broad prospectively specified demographic and political-attitudinal baseline improved equal-unit mean log loss by 0.01023 (95% equal-unit bootstrap interval [0.00683, 0.01367]); its increment exceeded that of a specific two-item duty comparator by 0.01003 [0.00680, 0.01335]; and within-country permutation of the norm score degraded prediction by 0.01450 [0.01217, 0.01690].A model estimated in 2014 and applied to 2004 without coefficient refitting retained a 0.00983 [0.00672, 0.01292] increment from the norm score. Predictive increments were substantially smaller for reported contentious behavior and institutional contact. An exploratory reverse transfer did not support universal performance in countries absent from the 2004 training domain.These results support only a narrow, non-causal conclusion: the fixed three-item score carries incremental respondent-linked predictive information across many of the tested ISSP country and wave shifts, with substantial heterogeneity and no claim of universal transportability or measurement invariance.
Category: Social Science
[1] ai.viXra.org:2608.0062 [pdf] submitted on 2026-08-18 19:22:59
Authors: Yuan Di, Zongyan Liu
Comments: 29 Pages.
Millions of female university graduates in China face a severe shortage of standardized "two-day-office office jobs" each year, a structural mismatch that exacerbates employment pressure. Based on empirical data from the Anhui provincial civil service examination, this paper proposes a "dignity-defense-oriented reproductive decision-making model": Faced with the gap between high career expectations and reality, female university students, out of dignity defense and risk aversion to maternal punishment, prefer survival strategies such as "slow employment" and the "civil service exam craze" to marriage and childbearing, thus significantly suppressing the overall birth rate. To address this dilemma, it is recommended to reconstruct the university employment quality evaluation system and disciplinary structure, introduce national policies to reduce maternal punishment, and promote a shift in the macro-market towards women's self-indulgent consumption.
Category: Social Science